Gulf Shores, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

080
FXUS64 KMOB 231130
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
630 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Overall, not much going on today and Saturday as mainly zonal flow
today becomes more northwesterly tomorrow. Dry conditions will
persist today as upper ridging builds over the central US.
However despite drier northwesterly flow aloft, tis the season
where we really can`t get away from the moisture. With a series of
subtle shortwaves expected to move through the northwesterly flow,
rain chances will likely return on Saturday. Scattered storms will
be possible during the afternoon on Saturday with the best chances
along and north of highway 84. We will need to keep a close eye as
a Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) will approach from the
northwest ahead of the shortwave. The question is does this
complex make it intact to our area as it butts up against the
strengthening ridge. Models tend to struggle with these complexes
and their outflow so it would be something to watch. If it does
make it to our area then some damaging winds may be possible and a
larger portion of the area will likely see rain. Nonetheless, pop
up storms will be possible and the overall profile would support
the potential for some damaging wind gusts and maybe some hail
mixed in with the strongest of storms.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side with highs in the 90s
and lows increasing back into the upper 60s to low 70s. BB-8




Sunday through Thursday...

A typical summer diurnal pattern unfolds through the period as
numerous mini-shortwaves and impulses pass over our region in a
mid/upper level pattern that fluctuates from a southwesterly to at
times nearly zonal flow. Plenty of moisture will be available for at
least scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, but appears to
maximize on Tuesday when precipitable waters values reach around 2.1
inches and surface boundary enters into and stalls across our area.
The timing of the highest rain chance is not set in stone, so
adjustments will likely be needed. The highest rainfall totals over
the five day period will occur northwest of I-65 where widespread
amounts from 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain is forecast. Locally higher
amounts up to 4 inches is possible. At this time it is still too
early to determine if there could be any local severe impacts.

High temperatures Sunday should reach the middle 90s, with apparent
temperatures (heat indices) in upper 90s to lower 100s. Highs will
then range from the middle 80s to the lower 90s through Thursday.
Low temperatures between 69 to 76 degrees Sunday and Monday nights
will cool slightly Tuesday and Wednesday nights due to the higher
rain chances. /22


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast with a light
southerly wind. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

No hazards are expected with a light onshore flow developing over
the weekend and persisting into next week. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      91  70  89  72  91  72  89  74 /   0   0  20   0  20  20  40  30
Pensacola   88  73  88  75  88  74  86  77 /   0   0  10   0  20  10  30  20
Destin      88  76  88  77  88  77  87  78 /   0   0  10   0  10  10  20  20
Evergreen   93  66  93  69  93  69  91  70 /   0   0  20  10  30  20  50  40
Waynesboro  91  68  92  69  92  69  90  70 /   0  10  30  10  30  30  60  40
Camden      89  66  90  69  92  69  89  70 /   0   0  20  10  40  30  60  50
Crestview   94  66  93  69  93  69  91  71 /   0   0  10   0  20  20  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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